The Outlook for Small Credit Unions

4 min read

By Mark H. Smith, Founder

Credit unions and like-minded small businesses across the country are the heart and soul of the US economy. While big business focuses on shipping jobs to far-off lands where labor is cheap and taxes are low, small business remain centered on winning and serving customers the old-fashioned way—that is, by delivering what they promise, and even more importantly, by responding to customers’ needs in a prompt and personal way. Many economists credit the small-business sector with providing a majority of the success of the modest business recovery which we have witnessed in recent years.

While some are larger than others, by any definition, credit unions are small businesses. Few have more than 100 employees or revenue in excess of $10 million. Many have fewer than 20 employees and total revenues of less than $2 million.

Credit unions have performed well in recent years, but unfortunately that success has not been evenly distributed. The largest third of US credit unions have scored the majority of the success. Meanwhile, many in the lower two-thirds have struggled to remain viable and profitable. Many credit unions, especially the very small ones, struggle and are being merged into larger institutions at an alarming rate. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; but in speaking with many of the merged credit unions, we have noted that a merger was not their first choice.

In this article, we will explore the basic nature of small businesses, and credit unions in particular. In future issues of CU-ALM Report, we will provide an in-depth look at several credit unions. These credit unions have out-performed their peers in key metrics. Let’s start by reviewing what credit unions have working for them, especially the smaller ones:

  • Member Relationships: Small credit unions have a distinct advantage when it comes to working with their customers/members. It is far easier to make members feel at home and special when you call them by name and they in turn know yours. Identifying member needs and responding to them is far easier on a local or regional basis. Better, more timely, and personalized service may be more easily provided at a smaller credit union.
  • Community Support: Small credit unions can often garner community support not available to their larger, more diverse cousins. The credit union concept of field of membership fits in neatly with the principles of community support. Many people prefer to do business locally. To really leverage this advantage, credit union officers and employees need to be active through service in the community and civic organizations.
  • Flexibility: Small credit unions by their nature are more flexible than large ones, certainly more so than large banking chains. Surely a credit union with four or five branches and 50 employees can be more innovative and responsive to community needs than the $100+ billion institution down the street.
  • Service Niche Markets: Credit unions have served niche markets since their beginning. Even with multiple and more complex fields of membership, credit unions can identify and satisfy niches among their membership.
  • Innovation and Consensus Building: Small business organizations almost always find it easier to build a consensus and implement innovative strategies.
  • Unity of Purpose and Commitment: The nature of the credit union allows it to focus on the joint benefit to members and to the credit union itself.

The above points are proven, but without doubt some of you are mumbling, “How easily said, but not so easily accomplished.” We agree. In fact, on a personal basis in the 35+ years that I have worked with credit unions I would classify the current economic landscape as the most difficult and challenging that I have ever seen. Nevertheless, here at MHSI, we interact with clients every day who are having great success in spite of the challenges they face. We have spoken with several of these successful CEOs and encouraged them to share the keys to their success with you. The response has been very positive.

In each of the remaining 2016 issues of CU-ALM Report, we will feature a credit union that has been swimming against the tide in recent years.

First, in our July/August issue, we will highlight the success of Family Focus Federal Credit Union in Omaha, Nebraska. It’s small – $30 million in assets, with limited resources. It is supported by a closed and mature field of membership that is not growing. It competes with 20 other credit unions in the Omaha metro area as well as banks and other lenders. It is typical of so many small credit unions that have seen their membership mature, loan volumes plummet, and net income evaporate.

“But wait” like the guy on the television commercial teases. In 2015 Family Focus earned a ROA of 1.13% from ongoing operations. No, that’s not a misprint. That’s an ROA of 1.13% for the year 2015 compared to a peer group at .27%. Loans-to-shares at year-end was 93% compared to the peer average of 57%. How many of our readers would sacrifice a body part for numbers like that?

Amy Broderson is the CEO at Family Focus. She credits a strong board of directors and highly motivated and well-trained employees as the core of the credit union’s success. But there has to be more to it than that and I intend to find out what it is and report to you in our next issue. I will be traveling to Omaha in late May to visit extensively with Amy and her team. She has promised to share all with respect to the success the credit union has achieved.

In the fall issues of CU-ALM Report, we will interview and report on success stories, one at about $75 to $100 million and the second at around over $100 million. Stay tuned.

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As we move into 2021, the following topics might be worth discussing and considering with your management team.

Earnings

During the first half of 2020, net interest margins came under substantial pressure as market interest rates were shocked dramatically downward. Net interest margins are expected to remain under downward pressure throughout 2021 as investment portfolios continue to reprice lower and share growth continues.

One of the easiest and quickest responses to declining interest income is to address the cost of funds. Many credit unions still have room to decrease their cost of funds, as shown in the September 2020 ending period graph below.

Yield vs. Cost of FundsSource: NCUA

Delinquency

Based on the September 2020 call report data, loan delinquencies and net charge-offs remained low and were below September 2019 delinquencies. Loan forbearance and other assistance programs in place through the entirety of 2020 may have helped delinquencies. Also, certain sectors of the economy are not as impacted as others. The unemployment rate is expected to continue drifting lower in 2021. However, as the assistance programs are lifted, delinquencies and charge-offs are expected to increase as unemployment remains substantially above the years leading up to the pandemic.

Total Loan Delinquency Rates By Category

Source: MHSI Online Peer Analysis Module through September 2020

Credit Union Philosophy

Serving the underserved has always been a hallmark of credit unions, and now more than ever, there is an opportunity to do this for many credit union members. As these times have been challenging, credit unions can continue to evaluate and prioritize how to best serve members in the coming year, especially those under financial stress. Exploring how to provide service to those that are underbanked might be an opportunity. One option may include evaluating risk-based lending policies and programs, especially given the robust liquidity on most credit union balance sheets. New and alternative avenues to bolster income should continue to be explored.

Digital and Technology

As the pandemic shifts and prolongs, credit unions should evaluate if their electronic delivery channels meet members and potential members’ needs. Moving to or improving digital delivery channels should be accelerated and prioritized. Digital delivery should include evaluating loan origination and servicing channels to maximize new loan volumes. Online and remote financial services will continue to grow and may be the preferred way members access and manage their financial activities.

Balance Sheet Growth

Before the pandemic, many experts anticipated credit union loan growth to taper off but remain positive. After the first quarter of 2021, loan production became unpredictable, however, by the end of the third quarter, annualized loan growth was 6.34%. Real estate lending, driven by the abruptly lower interest rate environment, helped with the growth. Experts anticipate loan growth to be around 6.0% to 6.5% over the next 12 months as the economy recovers.

The first few months of 2021 may see strong share growth as the second round of government assistance and stimulus takes hold, and households remain reluctant to spend until signs of COVID easing and warmer weather occur. Share growth last year increased at an annualized rate of over 18% and is expected to be approximately 8.0% to 10.0% in the coming year. If double-digit growth continues, earnings sufficient enough to sustain capital will be critical. If economic conditions improve and overall consumer activity increases, loan growth and increasing long-term interest rates could counter some of the anticipated income pressures. Fortunately, the credit union industry is very well capitalized and able to ride out the adverse conditions and absorb some more growth, even if earnings are reduced. 

Several years back, I went to Mexico for a vacation. While there, I found a ceramic hand-painted frog-shaped planter that I wanted. My husband loves the hunt, and his quest began. Every time we saw a frog-planter, he would start negotiating with the vendor to get the lowest possible price. We searched for several days and would stop in different towns and check the markets while enjoying our vacation and exploring. When we found a frog, he would inquire about the price and negotiate for further discounts. After a few days and no success at getting the cost of the frog below a certain point, my husband declared, “we have hit the bottom of the frog market.”

…

Future GDP Projections

In September, the Federal Reserve Chairman spoke publicly on several occasions and reiterated that the central bank is committed to helping the economy “for as long as it takes.” He noted continued improvements in the economy, but also acknowledged a highly uncertain path ahead. The September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) projections are now projecting a full-year GDP decline of 3.7%. This is substantially better than their previous expectation of a 6.5% decline. However, they lowered their 2021 outlook from 5.0% to 4.0% and their 2022 outlook from 3.5% to 3.0%. Their 2023 outlook is at 2.50%.

Interest Rates and Economic Uncertainties

The FOMC also indicated that they would allow inflation to run above 2.0% on a sustained basis before any federal funds rate increases. As such, most individual members of the Committee indicated that the federal funds rate could remain close to zero through 2023. Some economists and analysts even think that we may not see an increase in the federal funds rate until 2024 or 2025. They believe that it will take up to five years for the global economy to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The risks to the FOMC economic growth projections are high. Even the Chairman of the FOMC acknowledged the economic uncertainty of the path ahead. Following the sharp rebound in many economic data measures and drop in the unemployment rate, some recent measures have disappointed compared to expectations and some are indicating a recovery that is stalling. At the current time of this article, the nature of further fiscal stimulus continues to be negotiated in congress and some are not expecting a resolution until after the presidential election. Of course this only adds to the current economic uncertainty.

What is highly certain over the short to medium term timeframe is that interest rates will not likely be increasing more than just relatively minor fluctuations in the medium to long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. It is more likely that potential risks on the horizon could drive medium and longer-term U.S. Treasury yields even lower.

Reassessing Balance Sheet Strategy

Given the above outlook, it would certainly seem that some credit union balance sheet strategies of recent years should be reevaluated for the foreseeable future. Reassessing asset allocation strategies is possibly more relevant at the current time than at any time in the past several years. For example, the credit union may want to ask itself how much should we be redeploying assets into two to three year investment CDs given current interest rates on those maturities. If the answer is less than previous years, then what are the alternatives we can explore.

Priorities Going Forward

In exploring alternatives, the first priority for credit unions is of course serving members. Assessments and considerations could include expanding the types of loans offered, reevaluating risk based lending allocations, increasing real estate concentrations, debt consolidation programs, and loan payment support alternatives to name just a few. Secondary to the first priority are considerations such as allocations to loan participations and alternative investments. For example, should the credit union assess CUSO or similar investment possibilities. What are all of the possibilities for these type of investments that may be available to the credit union? After all, an alternative of earning five basis points at the corporate credit union with too much of assets is not likely to accomplish any priorities or goals for the credit union.

The present time and foreseeable future is a great time for credit unions to really show how they can serve and support members during these challenging times. Being there for your members is for sure the highest purpose for the credit union and always assessing ways to provide service and assistance to them will always be the credit union’s first priority. In addition and secondarily, now more than any time in recent years it may make sense to really take a deep dive into the above asset allocation assessments, considerations, and possibilities. Ideally, the best answers going forward would combine the first priority with the second to optimize balance sheet performance while best serving members.

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