Small Credit Unions – The Silent Majority

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Our guest article this issue is presented by Mr. Scott Butterfield of Your Credit Union Partner. It treats a topic that we don’t usually approach here at Mark H. Smith, Inc. That is the role small credit unions play in the complete credit union movement. However, we came across Mr. Butterfield and were impressed with his approach to how small credit unions can get involved and make a difference in the face of some great challenges. As always, when we publish a guest author, we do so without recommendation. The opinions and suggestions are solely of the author, Mr. Butterfield, and do not reflect the position or recommendation of Mark H. Smith, Inc. You be the judge; Mr. Butterfield’s contact information is found at the end of the article.


In many ways, today’s small credit unions resemble the “little guy” the credit union movement fights so hard to recognize and serve. As of September, 71.9 percent of our 5,966 credit unions are considered “small,” with assets of less than $100 million. Last year, I personally visited more than 35 small credit union boards and management teams for strategic planning sessions, credit unions located across the country in both urban and rural environments, and representative of all types of membership charters. My travels put me in a unique position to listen to and observe needs, wants – and, increasingly, frustrations.

FRUSTRATION IS HIGH (AND GROWING)

Smaller credit unions are frustrated over a host of issues. The regulatory burden remains a huge frustration, of course, but I often find it’s more than that. Two other big frustrations include:

1. Competition

This comes naturally from market forces. Everyone agrees, especially the little guys, that it’s harder to compete in today’s financial landscape. Small credit union leaders know that to be relevant long-term, they must be able to grow and generate sustainable income. In most cases, I find the apex competitor smaller credit unions face are the large credit unions located in their market. In some markets, there are three or four very large credit unions competing with an open field of membership, and – like it or not – this hurts the smaller (and even mid-sized) credit unions in that market.

Please understand, I don’t want to do anything to limit any of our credit unions, regardless of size – they all matter. But, I think we must at least look at, understand, and talk about the big elephant in the room. One best practice I see from time to time is a large credit union stepping up to help the smaller credit unions in the area. There are no strings attached; the larger credit union isn’t interested in merging the smaller credit union. It just wants to help, and sees it as another way to support the community at a different level. It’s a smart idea: a little bit of assistance can help smaller credit unions carve out their own unique niches, and smaller credit unions can sometimes help consumers the larger credit union can’t (or doesn’t want to).

2. Feeling Left Out

I’ve also found there’s latent frustration over the perception that many credit union trades and many vendors don’t care about small credit unions anymore. Small credit union leaders see all the attention the large credit unions get and believe it’s due to commensurate contributions of dues and fee income. The feeling is compounded by the volume of credit union-related content targeted to and/or about large credit unions.

I’ve written about this before, and believe me when I say that innovation at small credit unions is not dead. There are scores of small credit unions innovating, and many are among the movement’s fastest growing and most profitable. I encourage our trade associations and vendors to consider the amount of attention paid to smaller credit union issues. Like any good relationship, the more you invest, the more you get back. Make small credit union leadership feel respected and important, and their level of loyalty and participation will increase.

This month, many of us will gather in Washington D.C. to “Hike the Hill” and advocate for credit unions. We have very enthusiastic and professional advocates in Washington, but they need our support. I agree with Jim Nussle and others that the current political climate presents a huge opportunity for credit-union regulatory relief. None of us, small or large, can afford to miss this opportunity, and we all must get engaged if we want to be successful.

Small credit unions are a very big part of our advocacy picture. Because small credit union leadership is “closer” to their membership, the member stories they share with legislators may be more authentic, more clearly articulate the credit union’s role in serving the middle class, and their collective voice more closely represents our majority. I believe that in today’s political climate, the more authentic we can be, the better our chances to effect change.

SMALL CREDIT UNION ACCOUNTABILITY

It’s not only the trades and vendors that need to challenge the status quo. We need to see more small credit union leaders sitting on state- and national-level boards and committees to make sure their unique voices are heard. This is easier said than done; it’s a big investment in time for small credit union leaders who are up to their eyeballs in operations and compliance duties. Regardless, they need to make the investment if they want their voices heard. To influence change, you need to be at the table.

Small credit union leaders also need to support those programs and services that are currently available to them. Several leagues have already recognized the need to create forums for smaller credit unions – not just to “network,” but to provide strategic educational sessions unique to the challenges faced by small to mid-sized credit unions. Nothing is more frustrating for our trade associations than creating valuable, small-credit-union-focused events and not having enough people participate to justify the effort. I am privileged to work with credit union leagues and other trade associations that provide excellent education opportunities for smaller credit unions. I can tell you that many of the credit unions engaged in these small credit union programs are thriving and are among the most successful credit unions in the country. Smaller credit unions can and do succeed, but they must get involved.

GUT CHECK

We need to ask ourselves how much small credit unions matter to the credit union movement. Personally, I believe they are the heart and soul of our space. I’m not discrediting all the good work done by larger credit unions, and I know I will be criticized for saying it, but it is what I believe. Our “movement” becomes an “industry” without a healthy population of smaller credit unions.

If we believe small credit unions are vitally important to our space, I hope we can do more to collectively make serving and supporting them a higher priority. Our movement is stronger when we are all on the same page. It hurts our collective when portions feel unimportant or irrelevant. I believe there is opportunity to increase engagement through better inclusion and support.

YOURCREDITUNIONPARTNER.COM

Related/Popular Articles

As we move into 2021, the following topics might be worth discussing and considering with your management team.

Earnings

During the first half of 2020, net interest margins came under substantial pressure as market interest rates were shocked dramatically downward. Net interest margins are expected to remain under downward pressure throughout 2021 as investment portfolios continue to reprice lower and share growth continues.

One of the easiest and quickest responses to declining interest income is to address the cost of funds. Many credit unions still have room to decrease their cost of funds, as shown in the September 2020 ending period graph below.

Yield vs. Cost of FundsSource: NCUA

Delinquency

Based on the September 2020 call report data, loan delinquencies and net charge-offs remained low and were below September 2019 delinquencies. Loan forbearance and other assistance programs in place through the entirety of 2020 may have helped delinquencies. Also, certain sectors of the economy are not as impacted as others. The unemployment rate is expected to continue drifting lower in 2021. However, as the assistance programs are lifted, delinquencies and charge-offs are expected to increase as unemployment remains substantially above the years leading up to the pandemic.

Total Loan Delinquency Rates By Category

Source: MHSI Online Peer Analysis Module through September 2020

Credit Union Philosophy

Serving the underserved has always been a hallmark of credit unions, and now more than ever, there is an opportunity to do this for many credit union members. As these times have been challenging, credit unions can continue to evaluate and prioritize how to best serve members in the coming year, especially those under financial stress. Exploring how to provide service to those that are underbanked might be an opportunity. One option may include evaluating risk-based lending policies and programs, especially given the robust liquidity on most credit union balance sheets. New and alternative avenues to bolster income should continue to be explored.

Digital and Technology

As the pandemic shifts and prolongs, credit unions should evaluate if their electronic delivery channels meet members and potential members’ needs. Moving to or improving digital delivery channels should be accelerated and prioritized. Digital delivery should include evaluating loan origination and servicing channels to maximize new loan volumes. Online and remote financial services will continue to grow and may be the preferred way members access and manage their financial activities.

Balance Sheet Growth

Before the pandemic, many experts anticipated credit union loan growth to taper off but remain positive. After the first quarter of 2021, loan production became unpredictable, however, by the end of the third quarter, annualized loan growth was 6.34%. Real estate lending, driven by the abruptly lower interest rate environment, helped with the growth. Experts anticipate loan growth to be around 6.0% to 6.5% over the next 12 months as the economy recovers.

The first few months of 2021 may see strong share growth as the second round of government assistance and stimulus takes hold, and households remain reluctant to spend until signs of COVID easing and warmer weather occur. Share growth last year increased at an annualized rate of over 18% and is expected to be approximately 8.0% to 10.0% in the coming year. If double-digit growth continues, earnings sufficient enough to sustain capital will be critical. If economic conditions improve and overall consumer activity increases, loan growth and increasing long-term interest rates could counter some of the anticipated income pressures. Fortunately, the credit union industry is very well capitalized and able to ride out the adverse conditions and absorb some more growth, even if earnings are reduced. 

Several years back, I went to Mexico for a vacation. While there, I found a ceramic hand-painted frog-shaped planter that I wanted. My husband loves the hunt, and his quest began. Every time we saw a frog-planter, he would start negotiating with the vendor to get the lowest possible price. We searched for several days and would stop in different towns and check the markets while enjoying our vacation and exploring. When we found a frog, he would inquire about the price and negotiate for further discounts. After a few days and no success at getting the cost of the frog below a certain point, my husband declared, “we have hit the bottom of the frog market.”

Future GDP Projections

In September, the Federal Reserve Chairman spoke publicly on several occasions and reiterated that the central bank is committed to helping the economy “for as long as it takes.” He noted continued improvements in the economy, but also acknowledged a highly uncertain path ahead. The September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) projections are now projecting a full-year GDP decline of 3.7%. This is substantially better than their previous expectation of a 6.5% decline. However, they lowered their 2021 outlook from 5.0% to 4.0% and their 2022 outlook from 3.5% to 3.0%. Their 2023 outlook is at 2.50%.

Interest Rates and Economic Uncertainties

The FOMC also indicated that they would allow inflation to run above 2.0% on a sustained basis before any federal funds rate increases. As such, most individual members of the Committee indicated that the federal funds rate could remain close to zero through 2023. Some economists and analysts even think that we may not see an increase in the federal funds rate until 2024 or 2025. They believe that it will take up to five years for the global economy to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The risks to the FOMC economic growth projections are high. Even the Chairman of the FOMC acknowledged the economic uncertainty of the path ahead. Following the sharp rebound in many economic data measures and drop in the unemployment rate, some recent measures have disappointed compared to expectations and some are indicating a recovery that is stalling. At the current time of this article, the nature of further fiscal stimulus continues to be negotiated in congress and some are not expecting a resolution until after the presidential election. Of course this only adds to the current economic uncertainty.

What is highly certain over the short to medium term timeframe is that interest rates will not likely be increasing more than just relatively minor fluctuations in the medium to long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. It is more likely that potential risks on the horizon could drive medium and longer-term U.S. Treasury yields even lower.

Reassessing Balance Sheet Strategy

Given the above outlook, it would certainly seem that some credit union balance sheet strategies of recent years should be reevaluated for the foreseeable future. Reassessing asset allocation strategies is possibly more relevant at the current time than at any time in the past several years. For example, the credit union may want to ask itself how much should we be redeploying assets into two to three year investment CDs given current interest rates on those maturities. If the answer is less than previous years, then what are the alternatives we can explore.

Priorities Going Forward

In exploring alternatives, the first priority for credit unions is of course serving members. Assessments and considerations could include expanding the types of loans offered, reevaluating risk based lending allocations, increasing real estate concentrations, debt consolidation programs, and loan payment support alternatives to name just a few. Secondary to the first priority are considerations such as allocations to loan participations and alternative investments. For example, should the credit union assess CUSO or similar investment possibilities. What are all of the possibilities for these type of investments that may be available to the credit union? After all, an alternative of earning five basis points at the corporate credit union with too much of assets is not likely to accomplish any priorities or goals for the credit union.

The present time and foreseeable future is a great time for credit unions to really show how they can serve and support members during these challenging times. Being there for your members is for sure the highest purpose for the credit union and always assessing ways to provide service and assistance to them will always be the credit union’s first priority. In addition and secondarily, now more than any time in recent years it may make sense to really take a deep dive into the above asset allocation assessments, considerations, and possibilities. Ideally, the best answers going forward would combine the first priority with the second to optimize balance sheet performance while best serving members.

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