Being A Little Different Pays Off

4 min read

Box Elder County FCU is a $106 million credit union located in a rural and historically agricultural county in northwestern Utah. In recent years the credit union has performed well above average when measured by some of the most commonly used credit union metrics. ROA for the calendar year 2015 was 1.75% compared to peer of .54%. Over the last three calendar years ROA has averaged 1.77%. For the same three-year look-back period the net worth (capital) ratio increased from 21.3% to 21.9% and total assets increased from $86.6 million to $105.7 million. In this article we will examine both the financial and human nature of the credit union’s operations and discover why it excelled when many of its counterparts struggled.

First let’s take a quick look at the credit union and its members. Box Elder County Credit Union has its roots in the employees of the Intermountain Indian School dating back almost 60 years. The school, which was a U.S. Government facility, was closed in 1984. Prior to the school closure, the credit union’s Board of Directors successfully petitioned NCUA for a community charter to include the residents of Box Elder County. The County continues to be the credit union’s primary field of membership.

Box Elder County, Utah, has a population of approximately fifty-three thousand. It is located in the far northwestern part of the state. The credit union is based in Brigham City, the county seat, which has a population of about twenty thousand. The economic history of the county is founded on agriculture and it continues to be a significant part of the county’s economy. However, there has been progress in the private sector over the years. Competition-wise, Box Elder faces two, $2 billion+ credit unions that operate branches in Brigham City and another $100 million credit union based about a mile away. Additionally, several regional and national banks operate branches in the immediate area.

Returning to the analysis of the credit union, it doesn’t take long when perusing the NCUA FPR for Box Elder, to see where the credit union differentiates itself from its peers in the level of non-interest income that the credit union earns.

The credit union’s non-interest revenue provides income significantly greater than its peers. One might guess the members are pounded with outrageous fees. In reviewing the credit union fee schedule it is clear that this is not the case. Punitive fees, meant to discourage unacceptable behaviors such as NSF, are similar to the other credit unions in the area and are well below those charged by the local banking branches.

OK so let’s look at the generation of non-interest revenue. The bottom line for the success of the credit union in achieving an above-peer non-interest income lies in the success of selling insurance products and vehicle warranties to its members and the resulting commission income. This migration to a sales culture did not come easy. In fact it took many years. Loan officers often have difficulty transitioning to a sales environment. The principal products sold by loan officers are:

  1. Loan insurance; this is a package that combines credit life, disability, and income protection to the member.
  2. Gap insurance; covers the gap in coverage between the replacement cost for a vehicle and the amount the member collision coverage provides. The gap can be significant for newer cars and trucks.
  3. Vehicle Warranties; cover the cost for major mechanical repairs. Loan officers are expected to sell these policies and warranties. They are incentivized to do so. Sales incentives can make up a significant part of their compensation.

Approximately one-third of the loans written include at least one of the above offerings. The credit union is working towards a sales success rate of 40%.

Some experts question the value to the borrower with regard to these add-on products. Box Elder’s response is thoughtful. First, the coverage is optional and the loan decision is not driven by the sales success. Second, the cost to the member is significantly less than if the borrower were to purchase similar coverage from a dealer or third party. Lastly, the credit union sees these add-ons as especially suitable for paycheck-to-paycheck borrowers.

Members can choose to manage their personal finances as they will. But we all know that many borrowers live paycheck-to-paycheck with few or no resources to fall back on. Even the loss of one paycheck would be very detrimental. Insurance coverages and warranties make a lot of sense for these borrowers.

Lastly we know that incentivizing loan officers to make and add to loans raises a conflict for the officer. If a loan officer stands to benefit personally in the lending process, their judgement is subject to question. In order to maintain the integrity of the lending process the credit union utilizes a separate underwriting function to back up the loan officers. A loan officer who originates a loan and sells additional services for commission will require another loan officer to underwrite and approve the loan.

In recent weeks the issues of sales cultures and incentives to staff members to sell has come under scrutiny due to the actions of one giant bank. Hundreds or perhaps thousands of the bank’s employees have been terminated due to apparent irregularities at the bank. Well, first of all, most credit unions do not present the opportunity for such gross misconduct because of their small size and their orientation to member service. But it is a risk that needs to be addressed. In the next issue of CU ALM Report we will treat the topic of internal controls that will identify unlawful and undesirable conduct in those few instances where it happens in the credit union system.

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As we move into 2021, the following topics might be worth discussing and considering with your management team.

Earnings

During the first half of 2020, net interest margins came under substantial pressure as market interest rates were shocked dramatically downward. Net interest margins are expected to remain under downward pressure throughout 2021 as investment portfolios continue to reprice lower and share growth continues.

One of the easiest and quickest responses to declining interest income is to address the cost of funds. Many credit unions still have room to decrease their cost of funds, as shown in the September 2020 ending period graph below.

Yield vs. Cost of FundsSource: NCUA

Delinquency

Based on the September 2020 call report data, loan delinquencies and net charge-offs remained low and were below September 2019 delinquencies. Loan forbearance and other assistance programs in place through the entirety of 2020 may have helped delinquencies. Also, certain sectors of the economy are not as impacted as others. The unemployment rate is expected to continue drifting lower in 2021. However, as the assistance programs are lifted, delinquencies and charge-offs are expected to increase as unemployment remains substantially above the years leading up to the pandemic.

Total Loan Delinquency Rates By Category

Source: MHSI Online Peer Analysis Module through September 2020

Credit Union Philosophy

Serving the underserved has always been a hallmark of credit unions, and now more than ever, there is an opportunity to do this for many credit union members. As these times have been challenging, credit unions can continue to evaluate and prioritize how to best serve members in the coming year, especially those under financial stress. Exploring how to provide service to those that are underbanked might be an opportunity. One option may include evaluating risk-based lending policies and programs, especially given the robust liquidity on most credit union balance sheets. New and alternative avenues to bolster income should continue to be explored.

Digital and Technology

As the pandemic shifts and prolongs, credit unions should evaluate if their electronic delivery channels meet members and potential members’ needs. Moving to or improving digital delivery channels should be accelerated and prioritized. Digital delivery should include evaluating loan origination and servicing channels to maximize new loan volumes. Online and remote financial services will continue to grow and may be the preferred way members access and manage their financial activities.

Balance Sheet Growth

Before the pandemic, many experts anticipated credit union loan growth to taper off but remain positive. After the first quarter of 2021, loan production became unpredictable, however, by the end of the third quarter, annualized loan growth was 6.34%. Real estate lending, driven by the abruptly lower interest rate environment, helped with the growth. Experts anticipate loan growth to be around 6.0% to 6.5% over the next 12 months as the economy recovers.

The first few months of 2021 may see strong share growth as the second round of government assistance and stimulus takes hold, and households remain reluctant to spend until signs of COVID easing and warmer weather occur. Share growth last year increased at an annualized rate of over 18% and is expected to be approximately 8.0% to 10.0% in the coming year. If double-digit growth continues, earnings sufficient enough to sustain capital will be critical. If economic conditions improve and overall consumer activity increases, loan growth and increasing long-term interest rates could counter some of the anticipated income pressures. Fortunately, the credit union industry is very well capitalized and able to ride out the adverse conditions and absorb some more growth, even if earnings are reduced. 

Several years back, I went to Mexico for a vacation. While there, I found a ceramic hand-painted frog-shaped planter that I wanted. My husband loves the hunt, and his quest began. Every time we saw a frog-planter, he would start negotiating with the vendor to get the lowest possible price. We searched for several days and would stop in different towns and check the markets while enjoying our vacation and exploring. When we found a frog, he would inquire about the price and negotiate for further discounts. After a few days and no success at getting the cost of the frog below a certain point, my husband declared, “we have hit the bottom of the frog market.”

Future GDP Projections

In September, the Federal Reserve Chairman spoke publicly on several occasions and reiterated that the central bank is committed to helping the economy “for as long as it takes.” He noted continued improvements in the economy, but also acknowledged a highly uncertain path ahead. The September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) projections are now projecting a full-year GDP decline of 3.7%. This is substantially better than their previous expectation of a 6.5% decline. However, they lowered their 2021 outlook from 5.0% to 4.0% and their 2022 outlook from 3.5% to 3.0%. Their 2023 outlook is at 2.50%.

Interest Rates and Economic Uncertainties

The FOMC also indicated that they would allow inflation to run above 2.0% on a sustained basis before any federal funds rate increases. As such, most individual members of the Committee indicated that the federal funds rate could remain close to zero through 2023. Some economists and analysts even think that we may not see an increase in the federal funds rate until 2024 or 2025. They believe that it will take up to five years for the global economy to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The risks to the FOMC economic growth projections are high. Even the Chairman of the FOMC acknowledged the economic uncertainty of the path ahead. Following the sharp rebound in many economic data measures and drop in the unemployment rate, some recent measures have disappointed compared to expectations and some are indicating a recovery that is stalling. At the current time of this article, the nature of further fiscal stimulus continues to be negotiated in congress and some are not expecting a resolution until after the presidential election. Of course this only adds to the current economic uncertainty.

What is highly certain over the short to medium term timeframe is that interest rates will not likely be increasing more than just relatively minor fluctuations in the medium to long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. It is more likely that potential risks on the horizon could drive medium and longer-term U.S. Treasury yields even lower.

Reassessing Balance Sheet Strategy

Given the above outlook, it would certainly seem that some credit union balance sheet strategies of recent years should be reevaluated for the foreseeable future. Reassessing asset allocation strategies is possibly more relevant at the current time than at any time in the past several years. For example, the credit union may want to ask itself how much should we be redeploying assets into two to three year investment CDs given current interest rates on those maturities. If the answer is less than previous years, then what are the alternatives we can explore.

Priorities Going Forward

In exploring alternatives, the first priority for credit unions is of course serving members. Assessments and considerations could include expanding the types of loans offered, reevaluating risk based lending allocations, increasing real estate concentrations, debt consolidation programs, and loan payment support alternatives to name just a few. Secondary to the first priority are considerations such as allocations to loan participations and alternative investments. For example, should the credit union assess CUSO or similar investment possibilities. What are all of the possibilities for these type of investments that may be available to the credit union? After all, an alternative of earning five basis points at the corporate credit union with too much of assets is not likely to accomplish any priorities or goals for the credit union.

The present time and foreseeable future is a great time for credit unions to really show how they can serve and support members during these challenging times. Being there for your members is for sure the highest purpose for the credit union and always assessing ways to provide service and assistance to them will always be the credit union’s first priority. In addition and secondarily, now more than any time in recent years it may make sense to really take a deep dive into the above asset allocation assessments, considerations, and possibilities. Ideally, the best answers going forward would combine the first priority with the second to optimize balance sheet performance while best serving members.

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